As you read this, the ISAF debate about how to reduce 11 Olympic classes for China down to 10 classes for Weymouth is about to get underway. It ain't going to be pretty. This will be a hard fought game of musical chairs.

I've been doing some research and analysis of the 11 classes to see how they square up to each other. You can read my full findings on my blog at SailJuiceBlog.com. My first piece of analysis was looking at the ‘Bums On Seats' (BOS) quotient for each of the 11 Olympic classes.

There are many ways you could compare the classes, but the fairest way I could think of was to look at the number of full-time competitors in each class. I used ISAF's World Rankings, taken from 3 October 2007.

First, here is how ISAF describes the workings behind the World Rankings: "Each competitor counts his or her best seven results over the previous two years.  The two year period is calculated on a rolling basis (from today's date to the same date two years previously).  Results less than 1 year old are multiplied by factor 1.5 (Year Weighting Factor) ('YWF')."

I've therefore made the assumption that the only full-time Olympic campaigners are those who have done at least seven ISAF-graded regattas in the past two years.

It's not a perfect assumption, because there are some notable anomalies, such as Ben Ainslie who languishes at 104th in the Finn World Rankings. But then with his America's Cup commitments he has been a part-timer of late, competing in just two ISAF-graded events in the past two years. Both of which he won of course: the Olympic Test Regattas in 2006 and 2007.

In the majority of cases, however, the ‘7 regatta' test is a pretty accurate one. So, below, in order of merit, are the 11 classes with their BOS ranking based on the number of full-time campaigners as at 3rd October 2007:


Bums On Seats Ranking

1.      Men's Singlehander (Laser), 155

2.      Women's Singlehander (Laser Radial), 79

3.      Men's Windsurfer (RS-X), 62

4.      Men's Doublehanded Dinghy (470), 61

5.      Open Skiff (49er), 50

6.      Men's Heavyweight Singlehander (Finn), 46

7.      Men's Keelboat (Star), 39

8.      Women's Windsurfer (RS-X), 35

9.      Women's Doublehanded Dinghy (470), 33

10.  Catamaran (Tornado), 29

11.  Women's Keelboat (Yngling), 15

I won't bog you down with my entire analysis of these numbers. You can go to SailJuiceBlog.com for that. But suffice it to say that 155 and 79 full-time competitors in the men's and women's singlehander fleets speaks volumes for the success of the Laser as an Olympic class. As for the Tornado, which can muster just 29 full-time teams, not very impressive.

Judging by the mauling the RYA received for its recent ISAF submissions regarding Olympic and Youth classes (neither of which recommended catamarans, to the widespread disgust of many), there is obviously a passionate multihull movement out there somewhere. But they're not actually campaigning Tornados. Something not quite right here, methinks. Maybe time for a change of catamaran? Something a bit more affordable, and perhaps a little narrower so you can tow the thing sensibly without having to dismantle the whole thing.

As for the Yngling, congratulations for swelling the number of full-time female sailors by... 45. Yes that's 15 full-time campaigns multiplied by three. Four years ago, at this stage of the Olympic cycle leading up to Athens, there were 22 full-time campaigns, so the Ygly Duckling is actually going backwards.

Bare statistics like these point to some obvious truths in helping ISAF come to some sensible conclusions about what should stay in, and what should be banished into Outer Darkness. However, such is the power of lobbying and the prevalence of vested interests within the ISAF structure, we can't necessarily rely on the ‘right decision' to be made.

It's not even that the finger can be pointed at anyone in particular, it's just that the decision-making process within ISAF is so convoluted and over-democratised that it's hard for any real progress to be made. It's much easier for the status quo to prevail, which is why classes like the Finn and the Star have retained their Olympic status for more than half a century. Steady as she goes! Far too steady as she goes.

Women's Skiff

It was encouraging to see the RYA advocate a Women's High Performance Skiff for nomination as an Olympic class for Weymouth 2012. Back in April you might remember there was an ISAF Evaluation Trial which took a look at some of the possible contenders for this slot: the 29er, 29erXX, International 14, GT60, Cherub Daemon and the RS800. This built a good bit of momentum behind the concept, but unfortunately it was somewhat allowed to fizzle away over the rest of the year. Into the breach, however, steps keen International 14 sailor Louise Hickey from Itchenor Sailing Club, who has taken it upon her shoulders to lobby for women's skiff sailing at the ISAF Conference in Portugal.

The advantage is that Louise, unencumbered by any commercial interests but doing this purely for the love of high performance sailing, will be able to make a strong case for women getting their own version of a 49er without anyone being able to accuse of her doing it for the money. That said, hers will not be an easy task. Removing just one chair from Olympic Classes Musical Chairs is hard enough, let alone two, which is what will have to happen if a new sailing category is to gatecrash its way into an already crowded party. But good luck to Louise. If a women's skiff is voted in as a new category, she will be able to take a massive part of the credit for that.

US Olympic Trials

Compared with the complex, behind-closed-doors selection process that chooses the sailors for our own Olympic team these days, the one-week, winner-takes-all trial favoured by the Americans seems so refreshingly quaint, and not a little bit naïve. It leaves the door wide open for some major upsets, which is exactly why the RYA bid ‘good riddance' to Weymouth Olympic Week almost 20 years ago.

However, one of the benefits of a one-shot system is that you do get some great sailors turning up to have their shot at glory. Mark Reynolds won the first of his three Olympic medals almost 20 years ago in Pusan, and he was back in the Star with his Pusan crew Hal Haenel to see if he could win the berth to Qingdao.

Reynolds was there at the US trials this year, at the ripe old age of 51. Too old, you might think, by the modern standards of an increasingly athletic class. The past few Star Worlds have all been won by recent converts from the Laser and Finn classes, supremely fit athletes in their 30s such as Iain Percy, Hamish Pepper, Xavier Rohart and this year's winner Robert Scheidt.

So despite his glittering career, maybe Reynolds has had his day. Well, not if the outcome of the US trials is anything to go by, where John Dane III, aged 57, won the regatta crewed by his 29-year-old son-in-law Austin Perry. This is a phenomenal achievement, and who's to say that Dane and Perry can't go on to win a medal in Qingdao next year? After all, last year's gold medallists in the Olympic Test Regatta, Andy Horton and Brad Nichol, could only manage 4th overall in the trials.

Of course, if the Chinese bring their weather-altering technology into play (it really does exist apparently), then maybe the Medal Race days will be windy as they have been for both the past two years. In which case I wouldn't fancy a 57-year-old's chances - even if he's Arnold Schwarzenegger - to outmuscle and outhike the likes of Percy, Scheidt, Pepper et al. But what a great story.

Forgive me for venturing off-topic into windsurfing territory, but the story told by Ben Barger, who won the RS-X Men's trials, is pretty exciting too. "The beginning of the regatta was some of the tougher times. The first race of the 16 race series, I didn't see the change of course on the race committee displayed, and was winning by a fair amount to only find out, it'll be the first and only points drop for the next 15 races. I had to retire from the first race.

"But I bounced back, race two I won. And the next eight races my nearest competitor, Mike Gebhardt and I battled between each other exchanging 1's and 2's, nearly deadlocked in a tie. Gebhardt had been my coach, and has nearly won the Olympic Games with a silver medal in the 1992 games but I have to say, I didn't care about his credentials, this was my turn to step up and take the win.


"Race 11 was the turning point of the regatta. I had a crash with Gebhardt right at the start of the race which severely bruised my hip, but I didn't care, I got up and crossed back on the fleet in second place, saying to myself, "Not this time." Each lap of that race I distanced myself from Gebhardt who was in third, and I was closing in on first place, Bob Willis, when I tried to cross Bob on the final upwind to only have a huge crash that was my fault.

"The only thing I could say to Bob was, ‘Sorry, and I'll do my circle now.' So I got up for the second time, did my circle and found holes in my board the size of a shark bite. I limped the board thru the final downwind to the finish, still beating Gebhardt and finally extending my lead. But the board was unsailable for the next race. With it badly damaged I looked for a another solution. Having no spare board on the water, I had to see if somebody else would lend me their board, and Eric Rachefuerer came up and said, ‘I'll do it of course.' So for the next 20 minutes, we changed all fitting and straps of the board to his, and commenced the next race, to have a solid race and extend my lead once more. I had to stay up all night patching up the board in my housing host Howard's garage. Thanks Howard and Julie!

"The following final four races, I kept on grinding and extending my lead, and never looked back. I knew I was going to the Olympics and fulfilling this dream, not as an alternate, but racing this time and going for the Gold Medal in China. A very special time, and grateful it turned out so well.

Great story, and for someone that seems so prone to collisions, what a great name, Ben Barger! You can read more at his excellent - but also slightly irritating - website, www.BenBarger.com